CES-Optimal Leading Indicator (COLI)
A leading indicator constructed from CES theory outperforms the Conference Board LEI by exploiting curvature-weighted dispersion.
Impact Score
Score Reasoning
- Importance
- Important applied result: theory-derived leading indicator outperforms Conference Board LEI. Links Papers 3 and 5.
- Novelty
- Novel construction: curvature-weighted dispersion as leading indicator. Original contribution bridging CES theory to forecasting.
- Quality
- Well-structured with clear methodology. Good LaTeX and cross-links to dynamics and empirical papers.