AI Capex Overinvestment
N-firm differential game produces 3-4x overinvestment vs cooperative: the prisoner's dilemma of AI infrastructure.
Impact Score
Score Reasoning
- Importance
- N-firm differential game producing 3-4x overinvestment is the mechanism driving the self-undermining dynamic. Critical for the AI transition narrative.
- Novelty
- Applies Cournot overinvestment to shared learning curves in AI infrastructure -- new connection. The Nash-crosses-faster result linking overinvestment to self-undermining is novel.
- Quality
- Outstanding article: clear game structure, empirical calibration table, crossing-time acceleration, and four testable predictions. Substantial (7249 chars).